Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
